Thank you all. The Primary has come and gone. Amongst the missing nearly everywhere outside of Official results, which can be found on the various municipal portals, are the vote totals for Jim Buba, the Republican Candidate for State Senate, First Middlesex District, Massachusetts. There may be good reason for this omission from tabloids and other media; perhaps it wasn’t important to them in the sense that uncontested races are not newsworthy. It is however to important to publish the whole story and not just pick and choose, which tends to leave the consuming public in the dark. The Good Lord only knows that we get enough of that today, so here they are (attached)
Since this is a Primary Election, the restrictions at the poll limit the voter to one ballot to the party of affiliation, and in the case of the Unenrolled, one ballot of choosing. In either case, the ballot is cast by an interested and motivated voter. Noting the wide margin of variation based upon the difference between registered Democrat and Republican, further analysis by party is a difficult task that must wait for the history books.
The above table consolidates the totals by municipality and party, omitting the vote totals for Chris Doherty for brevity. Suffice it to say that Chris garnered 3949 votes in total, so now you should be able to view this data with a discriminating eye. In Statistics, test points of variability become important. In this example, the range of variation can include such things as ‘all Democrat votes will be cast in November for Donoghue’ and reasonably suggest that any portion thereof will be cast for Buba. I rather think of the first suggestion as one extreme and ignore the obvious alternative extreme as it is just as unlikely.
Differences in the above totals as summary and Donoghue are to be considered for Doherty as well as blanks. In the Republican sums, the differences are blanks for ballots drawn.
Immediately then, it is apparent that of the dedicated base for which the Primary is held, the nomination process, the winning combination is a positive reminder that good things are coming in November. In this view, Buba bests Donoghue 65-55% and nearly all of the reasonable alternatives indicate strongly that a ten point variation will exist then. This does not suggest that Buba will win that election, but implies the margin within which improvement can be expected is narrow indeed, much narrower than would the raw totals opine.
In the end, vote totals will be the determining factor and in Dead Heats, variations of 2% or less are reasonable and obtainable.
I wish to convey my deepest gratitude to all those people who took time to make the effort and cast ballots for Buba when clearly in an uncontested race, they needn’t vote at all. In fact, were it not for the four-way contest for U.S. Congress, the turnout would have been much lower making any comparison impossible.
I hope you agree.
Republican Candidate for State Senate
First Middlesex District, Massachusetts
P.S. At this writing I am packing for a very important, personal family matter in Chicago and will return on Sunday Evening. This may not be the best of plans or scenarios, but ‘Family First’ is never a bad choice. I know you will understand.